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The Fermi Paradox


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#21 Trub L

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Posted 27 May 2014 - 12:02 PM

Nah - April 5th, 2063


That'll be my 60th anniversary.  I believe that's the dark matter year.

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#22 AspenLeif


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Posted 27 May 2014 - 12:03 PM

Nah - April 5th, 2063

On my birthday! And I'd be 87 (if I make it that far) MB
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#23 Vagus


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Posted 27 May 2014 - 12:04 PM

I'll be dead by then.  *phew*

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#24 Gumbo Leviathan

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Posted 27 May 2014 - 12:04 PM

I'll be 83.  I hope I make it that far so I can kick Zephram Chochran's ass when it doesnt actually happen then :P

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#25 Buscotucky


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Posted 27 May 2014 - 12:39 PM

I'll be on target for 99...since I'm going to live to be 110, I'll get to see what happens next! :)

Edited by Buscotucky, 27 May 2014 - 12:39 PM.

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#26 3rd party JKor

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Posted 27 May 2014 - 01:27 PM

The basic paradox seems sound to me.  There are so many worlds where life could evolve, and so many chances for life to have evolved millions of years earlier than on Earth, that we should be seeing little green men or their automated probes.  



I agree that the paradox is sound, I just don't like the way they portrayed the probability.  IMO is was a very sensationalist bent.  Why would you assume that "ONLY" 1% of the earth like planets develop life.  It's just as likely that 100% of earth-like planets develop life or that 0.000000000001% of earth-like planets develop life.  Or that we're the only one. 


I appreciate the quest, but I think in cases where there is so much unknown it's not very valuable to speculate.  At least for me.  I don't find it interesting.


Moving forward, we have no choice but to get completely speculative. Let’s imagine that after billions of years in existence, 1% of Earth-like planets develop life (if that’s true, every grain of sand would represent one planet with life on it). And imagine that on 1% of those planets, the life advances to an intelligent level like it did here on Earth. That would mean there were 10 quadrillion, or 10 million billion intelligent civilizations in the observable universe.

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#27 Stains_not_here_man


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Posted 27 May 2014 - 02:06 PM

It's just as likely that 100% of earth-like planets develop life or that 0.000000000001% of earth-like planets develop life. Or that we're the only one.

I don't think these are all equally likely. But I suspect you meant that given the lack of information available to us, we are not able to make any conclusions or even estimates about which one is more likely, and I agree. The 1% figure is essentially picked out of a hat.
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#28 siouxbrewer


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Posted 27 May 2014 - 04:35 PM

Thanks for the link, good read. I'm guessing we're behind the filter and that we're ####ed. Faster than light travel, disease, gamma ray burst, natural disaster etc sound reasonable. Either way we're not anywhere close to being able to get off this old rock. We might as well enjoy the brief time we have here and leave well enough alone.

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