Jump to content


Photo

The Fermi Paradox

science

  • Please log in to reply
27 replies to this topic

#21 Trub L

Trub L

    Hooked on a Feelin

  • Patron
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 112411 posts
  • LocationIn the Middle

Posted 27 May 2014 - 12:02 PM

Nah - April 5th, 2063

 

That'll be my 60th anniversary.  I believe that's the dark matter year.


  • 0

#22 AspenLeif

AspenLeif

    Comptroller of Gingerliness

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 22364 posts
  • LocationAspen, CO

Posted 27 May 2014 - 12:03 PM

Nah - April 5th, 2063

On my birthday! And I'd be 87 (if I make it that far) MB
  • 0

#23 Vagus

Vagus

    Just had an organism

  • Patron
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 45164 posts
  • LocationThere

Posted 27 May 2014 - 12:04 PM

I'll be dead by then.  *phew*


  • 0

#24 Gumbo Leviathan

Gumbo Leviathan

    Nutritional Anthropologist

  • Patron
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 24784 posts
  • LocationLocation Location

Posted 27 May 2014 - 12:04 PM

I'll be 83.  I hope I make it that far so I can kick Zephram Chochran's ass when it doesnt actually happen then :P


  • 0

#25 Buscotucky

Buscotucky

    Comptroller of Lips and Smooching

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 3390 posts

Posted 27 May 2014 - 12:39 PM

I'll be on target for 99...since I'm going to live to be 110, I'll get to see what happens next! :)


Edited by Buscotucky, 27 May 2014 - 12:39 PM.

  • 0

#26 3rd party JKor

3rd party JKor

    Puller of Meats

  • Patron
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 51156 posts
  • LocationNW of Boston

Posted 27 May 2014 - 01:27 PM

The basic paradox seems sound to me.  There are so many worlds where life could evolve, and so many chances for life to have evolved millions of years earlier than on Earth, that we should be seeing little green men or their automated probes.  

 

 

I agree that the paradox is sound, I just don't like the way they portrayed the probability.  IMO is was a very sensationalist bent.  Why would you assume that "ONLY" 1% of the earth like planets develop life.  It's just as likely that 100% of earth-like planets develop life or that 0.000000000001% of earth-like planets develop life.  Or that we're the only one. 

 

I appreciate the quest, but I think in cases where there is so much unknown it's not very valuable to speculate.  At least for me.  I don't find it interesting.

 

Moving forward, we have no choice but to get completely speculative. Let’s imagine that after billions of years in existence, 1% of Earth-like planets develop life (if that’s true, every grain of sand would represent one planet with life on it). And imagine that on 1% of those planets, the life advances to an intelligent level like it did here on Earth. That would mean there were 10 quadrillion, or 10 million billion intelligent civilizations in the observable universe.

  • 0

#27 Stains_not_here_man

Stains_not_here_man

    Phat O'Mic Chef Winner!

  • Patron
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 89185 posts

Posted 27 May 2014 - 02:06 PM

It's just as likely that 100% of earth-like planets develop life or that 0.000000000001% of earth-like planets develop life. Or that we're the only one.

I don't think these are all equally likely. But I suspect you meant that given the lack of information available to us, we are not able to make any conclusions or even estimates about which one is more likely, and I agree. The 1% figure is essentially picked out of a hat.
  • 0

#28 siouxbrewer

siouxbrewer

    Comptroller of Teh Beefs and other beeflike animals that are tas

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 5741 posts
  • LocationGreat Plains, KS

Posted 27 May 2014 - 04:35 PM

Thanks for the link, good read. I'm guessing we're behind the filter and that we're ####ed. Faster than light travel, disease, gamma ray burst, natural disaster etc sound reasonable. Either way we're not anywhere close to being able to get off this old rock. We might as well enjoy the brief time we have here and leave well enough alone.


  • 0



Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: science

0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users