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#21 Enid Puceflange

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 02:11 PM

Maybe. But from a strictly military standpoint, wouldn't you be more worried about a country you actually share a border with and fought a bloody war with very recently? They like to use the U.S. as a boogeyman to stir up the masses but there are still lots of widows left over from the war.

No, and here's why. Iraq is no longer controlled by the Sunnis - it's majority Shia, same as Iran, and Iran's influence over Iraq is pretty complete. Furthermore, Iran has a very young population - memories of the war with Iraq have faded, and the dictator that caused the war has gone. 

 

They see the US all around them - in Saudi, Turkey, Pakistan - and they see the results of a confrontation with the US next door. The only reason that they are not running headlong for nuclear deterrence is because against all the odds the sanctions have ground the economy into the dirt before they got the chance.


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#22 shmgeggie

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 02:17 PM

No, and here's why. Iraq is no longer controlled by the Sunnis - it's majority Shia, same as Iran, and Iran's influence over Iraq is pretty complete. Furthermore, Iran has a very young population - memories of the war with Iraq have faded, and the dictator that caused the war has gone. 

 

They see the US all around them - in Saudi, Turkey, Pakistan - and they see the results of a confrontation with the US next door. The only reason that they are not running headlong for nuclear deterrence is because against all the odds the sanctions have ground the economy into the dirt before they got the chance.

 

Well, then we're kind of agreeing. Iraq is no longer a threat and that's a major reason, IMO, that they may be willing to give up nukes. There are definitely plenty of U.S. proxies in the Middle-East (you forgot Israel) but I think they're more into self-preservation than dishing-out whoopass on Iran.


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#23 Enid Puceflange

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 02:25 PM

Well, then we're kind of agreeing. Iraq is no longer a threat and that's a major reason, IMO, that they may be willing to give up nukes. There are definitely plenty of U.S. proxies in the Middle-East (you forgot Israel) but I think they're more into self-preservation than dishing-out whoopass on Iran.

Nuclear weapons are the only sure fire tool that prevents the US (or their proxies the UN and NATO) from deciding some day to invade and turf the government out. If I were in the Iranian government, I would want a bomb more than anything to make me invulnerable. 

 

It's hard in the US to know quite how the rest of the world views the USA - but fear is a major part of it. Even America's allies are afraid of it and what it can and does do reflexively. Countries that are aligned against it are in so much harder of a position.

 

Probably the best accident of history is that Pakistan is Sunni, and Iran is Shia,,,,,,,otherwise they would already have the bomb.


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#24 shmgeggie

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 02:34 PM

Nuclear weapons are the only sure fire tool that prevents the US (or their proxies the UN and NATO) from deciding some day to invade and turf the government out. If I were in the Iranian government, I would want a bomb more than anything to make me invulnerable. 

 

It's hard in the US to know quite how the rest of the world views the USA - but fear is a major part of it. Even America's allies are afraid of it and what it can and does do reflexively. Countries that are aligned against it are in so much harder of a position.

 

Probably the best accident of history is that Pakistan is Sunni, and Iran is Shia,,,,,,,otherwise they would already have the bomb.

 

I had a U.S. history course at Tapei American School called "America Through Foreign Eyes," taught by a British teacher using a New Zealand textbook. Let's just say my perspective is a little broader than most Americans'.

 

I'm probably underestimating the deterrent effect on the U.S. of a nuke or two. N. Korea doesn't scare me in the slightest bit. The main deterrent there is the proximity of Seoul and alliance with China.


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#25 SchwanzBrewer

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 03:01 PM

I had a U.S. history course at Tapei American School called "America Through Foreign Eyes," taught by a British teacher using a New Zealand textbook. Let's just say my perspective is a little broader than most Americans'.

 

I'm probably underestimating the deterrent effect on the U.S. of a nuke or two. N. Korea doesn't scare me in the slightest bit. The main deterrent there is the proximity of Seoul and alliance with China.

 

I'm pretty sure if push came to shove, China would push N Korea right off a cliff. They have zero economic advantages to being N Koreas ally at this point. None of the major economic players want war with each other. They just want all these piss ant countries to grow up and put on their big boy pants. 


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#26 thedisappearer

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 03:03 PM

Regardless of the intellectual vigor of Taipei American High's history department, I'm firmly siding with Enid on this.
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#27 shmgeggie

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 03:11 PM

Regardless of the intellectual vigor of Taipei American High's history department, I'm firmly siding with Enid on this.

 

I'm cool with that. [brewboy]It's not like I'm going to listen to you just 'cause you're an "expert" in the field or anything.[/brewboy]


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#28 thedisappearer

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 03:16 PM

I'm cool with that. [brewboy]It's not like I'm going to listen to you just 'cause you're an "expert" in the field or anything.[/brewboy]

Lol. I see your point with Iraq, but they had ten years since we invaded to give up their nuke program. Instead,they amped it up.
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#29 shmgeggie

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 03:29 PM

Back to the OP, I think this may just be a stalling tactic, for now. From what I've read, Iran has overcome the Stuxnet virus and has been running their centrifuges full-bore. If they can buy a couple of years time by pretending to play nice, they'll probably have a big enough pile of enriched uranium to build a few nukes. Fortunately, they'll have to rely on N. Korean missile technology for delivery of said nukes.


Edited by shmgeggie, 24 September 2013 - 03:30 PM.

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#30 miccullen

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 04:58 PM

Back to the OP, I think this may just be a stalling tactic, for now. From what I've read, Iran has overcome the Stuxnet virus and has been running their centrifuges full-bore. If they can buy a couple of years time by pretending to play nice, they'll probably have a big enough pile of enriched uranium to build a few nukes. Fortunately, they'll have to rely on N. Korean missile technology for delivery of said nukes.

that's OK Israel is big enough they'll at least hit part of it, or Jordan. maybe Egypt, close though 


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#31 shmgeggie

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 05:07 PM

that's OK Israel is big enough they'll at least hit part of it, or Jordan. maybe Egypt, close though 

 

I don't think Iran's leadership is interested in collective suicide.


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#32 miccullen

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 05:11 PM

I don't think Iran's leadership is interested in collective suicide.

one would think not, just making fun of North Korean missile accuracy


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#33 shmgeggie

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 05:13 PM

one would think not, just making fun of North Korean missile accuracy

 

Can't fix that with photoshop, can they?


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#34 miccullen

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 05:27 PM

Can't fix that with photoshop, can they?

:smilielol:


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