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Iran is changing

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#1 Enid Puceflange

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 11:51 AM

https://www.economis...s-biggest-smile

 

Wow. Maybe, just maybe the sanctions might work......

 

 

[color=rgb(74,74,74);font-family:Arial, sans-serif;font-size:15px;]On September 18th the Iranian government released 11 prominent political prisoners, including Nasrin Sotoudeh, a human-rights lawyer, and Feizollah Arabsorkhi, a former commerce minister and member of a reformist political party. Many others remain locked up.[/color]

[color=rgb(74,74,74);font-family:Arial, sans-serif;font-size:15px;]In written messages, Mr Rohani spoke directly to his enemies and ostensibly did so with humility and goodwill. He wrote a private letter to President Barack Obama, who sent one back. He also tweeted new year’s greetings to Jews celebrating the festival of Rosh Hashanah. Western social-media sites including Twitter and Facebook were temporarily unblocked in Iran, though users still reported problems gaining access to them.[/color]

[color=rgb(74,74,74);font-family:Arial, sans-serif;font-size:15px;]Making his intentions clearer still, Mr Rohani told commanders of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, a paramilitary outfit that handles the sharp end of foreign relations, to stay out of politics.[/color]

 


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#2 SchwanzBrewer

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 11:54 AM

Scott Adams predicted this would happen, sorta.


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#3 Enid Puceflange

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 11:56 AM

To be fair, this IS what we rather hoped sanctions would do, so Scott Adams isn't alone in this :)


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#4 Mynameisluka

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 11:57 AM

rohani isn't making any such change without the support of khamenei. if khamenei is sincerely fostering a changing environment, i'll be shocked.


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#5 davelew

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 11:57 AM

What's the success rate of economic sanctions?  I think you could call South Africa a success, but I'm having trouble think of other sanctions success stories.  If it works in Iran, that's great, but the odds seem to be against it.


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#6 SchwanzBrewer

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 11:58 AM

https://dilbert.com/...ies_in_history/


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#7 Mynameisluka

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 11:59 AM

if anything, i think the recent events in syria may have, for several reasons, caused them to rethink their stance.


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#8 Enid Puceflange

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 12:00 PM

What's the success rate of economic sanctions?  I think you could call South Africa a success, but I'm having trouble think of other sanctions success stories.  If it works in Iran, that's great, but the odds seem to be against it.

Burma springs to mind - but I agree, not all that many success stories. 


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#9 Mynameisluka

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 12:02 PM

What's the success rate of economic sanctions?  I think you could call South Africa a success, but I'm having trouble think of other sanctions success stories.  If it works in Iran, that's great, but the odds seem to be against it.

 

this is why i think the recent situation in syria may have played more of a part than anything, IF there is a legitimate change unfolding.


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#10 shmgeggie

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 01:20 PM

Burma springs to mind - but I agree, not all that many success stories. 

 

If we're recognizing the regime now, shouldn't we call it Myanmar?


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#11 shmgeggie

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 01:35 PM

Iran's biggest threat in the recent past has been Iraq. Now that Iraq has a Shiite dominated gov't, Iran probably feels less need for a nuclear deterrent to keep a hostile Iraq at bay. It makes sense to tone-down the rhetoric and try to re-join the world economy. Remember, Iran is not a nation of backwards goat-herders, like Afghanistan. It has a well-educated urban population that still has lots of ties with the U.S., since so many Iranians were educated in the U.S. in the '70's. The ayatollahs have been holding the Iranian people back for 40 years but they probably see the writing on the wall. The so-called "Arab Spring" has probably made them a little nervous as well.

 

p.s. My guess is that they've already tucked-away enough fissile material to make a few bombs and figure that's enough for now.


Edited by shmgeggie, 24 September 2013 - 01:36 PM.

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#12 thedisappearer

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 01:39 PM

You are saying Iran wanted a nuclear deterrent because of... Iraq?
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#13 shmgeggie

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 01:51 PM

You are saying Iran wanted a nuclear deterrent because of... Iraq?

 

Yes. They fought a war against Iraq for 8 years and suffered hundreds of thousands of casualties. They were on the receiving end of WMDs in the form of Saddam's chemical weapons. Who else is presenting a military threat to Iran? The only reason the U.S. and Israel pose a threat is *because* of nuclear weapons development.


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#14 Enid Puceflange

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 01:57 PM

I'd argue that they want a nuclear weapon because of the US, they have seen how well it works when you have one (N. Korea) and when you don't (Iraq and Libya).

 

The alternative - normalizing relations with the USA - is seen as a longer shot than making a bomb or two.


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#15 Vagus

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 02:00 PM

I'd argue that they want a nuclear weapon because of the US, they have seen how well it works when you have one (N. Korea) and when you don't (Iraq and Libya).

 

The alternative - normalizing relations with the USA - is seen as a longer shot than making a bomb or two.

I think they want nukes because even I want nukes.  God the things i could do with a nuke.  Well a nuke and a delivery system.  Man on the moon, i'm coming to get YOU!


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#16 Enid Puceflange

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 02:02 PM

I think they want nukes because even I want nukes.  God the things i could do with a nuke.  Well a nuke and a delivery system.  Man on the moon, i'm coming to get YOU!

Even more than nukes, I want a room with a bunch of chairs that drop the person sitting in it into a tank of sharks or piranhas when I push a button on my master chair. And a massive fortress dug into the side of a mountain. And a huge laser for splitting James Bond in half when I capture him......breathes.....


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#17 shmgeggie

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 02:06 PM

I'd argue that they want a nuclear weapon because of the US, they have seen how well it works when you have one (N. Korea) and when you don't (Iraq and Libya).

 

The alternative - normalizing relations with the USA - is seen as a longer shot than making a bomb or two.

 

Maybe. But from a strictly military standpoint, wouldn't you be more worried about a country you actually share a border with and fought a bloody war with very recently? They like to use the U.S. as a boogeyman to stir up the masses but there are still lots of widows left over from the war.


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#18 Vagus

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 02:09 PM

Even more than nukes, I want a room with a bunch of chairs that drop the person sitting in it into a tank of sharks or piranhas when I push a button on my master chair. And a massive fortress dug into the side of a mountain. And a huge laser for splitting James Bond in half when I capture him......breathes.....

Side of a mountain?  Or the entire mountain....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

range?


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#19 shmgeggie

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 02:09 PM

Even more than nukes, I want a room with a bunch of chairs that drop the person sitting in it into a tank of sharks or piranhas when I push a button on my master chair. And a massive fortress dug into the side of a mountain. And a huge laser for splitting James Bond in half when I capture him......breathes.....

 

Dude, just shoot him. All you're doing is giving him a chance to escape by suspending him from a rope over a tank of sharks with a knife on a pendulum that gets a little closer to the rope with every swing. Just off the f'er as soon as you possibly can.


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#20 SchwanzBrewer

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 02:11 PM

Just thought this fits... NSFW language & stuff

 

Spoiler

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