150 replies to this topic

[Enid Puceflange]

Thinking long term, tech is always going to be a solid bet. What's more likely in the future? That more, or less, technology will be present in our lives? That a greater, or fewer, number of things in the future will have software integrated into them? And so on.

Advertising is a small part of "tech".

Well, yeah, but so are cars, groceries, weapons, etc etc. The question is - does tech justify the valuation it has right now, based on the potential for future earnings, or would that money be better off somewhere else. For the last few years with interest rates close to zero the cost of money in the future was low, making the possibility of future profits worth paying a premium for.

 

NOW with higher interest rates meaning future money is more expensive, those future profits look rather less appealing. 

[Stains_not_here_man]

That's fair. I would invest in tech companies that aren't quite as exposed to the advertising or consumer sector. Facebook right now is a bad bet in my opinion, as is Netflix but Amazon less so because of the strength of AWS. I think Microsoft is also probably a decent long term bet.

For the record, I only buy index funds so don't take investing advice from me

[Bklmt2000]

Question: the reason that tech (and especially the 3 you name here) are in the toilet is because the online advertising business is no longer growing much if at all, and there are few growth opportunities going forward. Add to that the likelihood of further Fed interest rate rises, it seems highly likely these stocks in particular will be hit hard in the near term AND in the future. What is your rationale for what seems to be a pretty contrarian view?

I think these three companies will do well in the long-term, current interest rate issues notwithstanding. 

 

I also hold Intel, Amazon, and Pfizer for the same reasons.

[TonyBrown]

so I just got a text from my oldest, he's in his finance class today, they just opened into the stock/bond market section and he and the prof had a 20min conversation during the class period cuz nobody else understood what they were talking about.  he left me with the impression that the professor really appreciated that interaction.  I'm actually having a zoom call with a guy next week about making some retirement moves for us now that we are down to almost zero debt we're gonna try and get some diversification in the portfolio for the next 10-12yrs

[Bklmt2000]

For the record, I only buy index funds so don't take investing advice from me

 

Same.  The vast majority of my portfolio (taxable and tax-deferred) is in low-cost index funds. 

 

Only about ~5% of my investments are in individual stocks, all in my taxable account.  I think they're a nice complement to index funds.

[Augie1991]

AAPL stock has been moving up nicely lately.  

- Considered a safe haven

- Upgraded recently by some analysts with $200 price target

- no stick glucose monitor in future Apple Watches could be catalyst for growth.

[Patrick C.]

For the record, I only buy index funds so don't take investing advice from me

 

 

 

 only buy index funds 

 

 

That's pretty good advice 

[dondewey]

Question: the reason that tech (and especially the 3 you name here) are in the toilet is because the online advertising business is no longer growing much if at all, and there are few growth opportunities going forward. Add to that the likelihood of further Fed interest rate rises, it seems highly likely these stocks in particular will be hit hard in the near term AND in the future. What is your rationale for what seems to be a pretty contrarian view?

If you purchase any stock at the current price, isn't it by definition not the contrairan view, but rather the weighted average perspective of anyone interested in buying or selling that stock?

[Bklmt2000]

Picked up another $2k in Google Class A shares this morning.  Bought at $93.30, closed at $96.11.

[Augie1991]

Up over $100! Skyline time!!

[Stains_not_here_man]

Sold a buttload of RSUs this morning...

[dondewey]

My first options play has been a ridiculous roller coaster and is currently sitting at...



exactly what I paid for it.

Rycey remains my best purchase. Up 130% since Sept.

[Bklmt2000]

Got a little bit more dry powder from selling an ETF that's been underperforming a bit.

 

Going to let that sit a bit in my brokerage core holding (US Treasury MM, currently yielding ~4.2%) and earn some interest.

[Bklmt2000]

Ended up buying some Citigroup stock last Friday when the price dipped briefly to $44/share.  Relative to the other big-name bank stocks, this one looked solid but undervalued to me, so I took the plunge.

 

Now it's back to straight-up index funds; I've collected what I wanted to get, and for good prices, so time to head for the sidelines.

[Augie1991]

So if the Fed does not raise rates tomorrow the market makes a solid move up?! Curious what everyone thinks. I think C is a smart move!

Edited by Augie1991, 21 March 2023 - 11:10 AM.

[DieselGopher]

I’m struggling to see them not raise it at all. Inflation is still a problem, and the banks are (somewhat) stable for a day or three. Most signs point to 0.25%, I think that will happen.

[Enid Puceflange]

The Fed is tasked with inflation, and to a lesser extent employment. The way to tackle inflation (because they can't raise taxes) is to jack up the cost of borrowing till stuff breaks. Stuff is breaking - so it's working

 

Edit: from the Economist:

 

 

A rate rise would also demonstrate that the Fed can chew gum and walk at the same time. In an ideal world officials should be able to manage financial stability while keeping inflation in check. With a combination of deposit guarantees, a new liquidity facility and support from bigger banks, a framework is now in place to shore up America’s financial institutions.

Edited by Enid Puceflange, 21 March 2023 - 11:28 AM.

[DieselGopher]

The Fed is tasked with inflation, and to a lesser extent employment. The way to tackle inflation (because they can't raise taxes) is to jack up the cost of borrowing till stuff breaks. Stuff is breaking - so it's working

Unfortunately, you are correct.

[Augie1991]

Should be an interesting hump day. Hopefully we don't all get screwed

[AspenLeif]

The Fed is tasked with inflation, and to a lesser extent employment. The way to tackle inflation (because they can't raise taxes) is to jack up the cost of borrowing till stuff breaks. Stuff is breaking - so it's working

 

Edit: from the Economist:

That got me nervous, sold FAS.  Made 9% since last Thurs.  

 

Toying with buying FAZ based on a market drop tomorrow with the interest rate announcement.