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#8801 porter

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Posted Today, 07:18 AM

I think that's presenting the more interesting data first. Deaths should lag diagnoses. A spike in cases is interesting because it might predict a spike in deaths. Obviously there are a lot of other variables, but I would expect to see a spike in cases a few weeks before a spike in deaths. We've had about a week of a very high rate of new cases, so deaths might spike in a few weeks.

If this were a baseball game, the US would be winning by a run, but COVID would be at bat with the bases loaded with no outs. The interesting part of that game wouldn't be the runs that already scored, it would be the runs that might be scored in the near future.

I get it, but consistency in presenting data is important when people are looking at it repeatedly to follow trends. The habit of presenting deaths first started when testing was much less available, but also because deaths are a much more reliable (though lagging) measure and the most important outcome. There are many variables posed between cases and resultant deaths, and some of those are changing over time, the other reason the CFR is changing (besides increased testing).

Edited by porter, Today, 07:19 AM.

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#8802 JKor

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Posted Today, 07:37 AM

I don’t think anyone knows what to expect next. Deaths are a trailing indicator, so it’s certainly alarming that cases are surging and some locales are at or trending to hospital capacity. But is that going to translate into surging deaths or some unanticipated crisis or just continue trucking along? Don’t know. We’ll have to wait and see.

As far as the media, if it bleeds, it leads. That’s nothing new. And trump is a part of the story because there’s no national strategy here and the president seems to want to ignore the whole thing. If we had an actual strategy for if things go to shit, there should be less concern over the infection numbers.


I expected to see deaths flatten or start increasing again last week and it didn't happen. Not sure what to expect now. It is a global phenomena, as well, cases are 2.5X what they were in March but deaths are DOWN 25-30% in the same period.
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#8803 TxBrewer

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Posted Today, 07:42 AM

I expected to see deaths flatten or start increasing again last week and it didn't happen. Not sure what to expect now. It is a global phenomena, as well, cases are 2.5X what they were in March but deaths are DOWN 25-30% in the same period.

 deaths being down 25-30% should be the lead story but it is a positive story so it will be burried, they need to continue to push the negative story.


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#8804 porter

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Posted Today, 07:46 AM

deaths being down 25-30% should be the lead story but it is a positive story so it will be burried, they need to continue to push the negative story.


I think it's appropriate to mention both and not favor either. "Coronavirus cases rising concerningly steeply while daily deaths continue to slowly decrease" would be the headline on Porter News Network.
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#8805 Vagus

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Posted Today, 07:47 AM

Deaths are down because the "national strategy" that doesn't exist is working. Nursing homes and vulnerable populations are seeing better isolation and protection than previously. Treatment has also improved; education on barrier protection and handling of infectious persons and agents has increased dramatically.  

 

And, per a theory im working on, there may be some element of herd immunity at work.

 

 

 

Same time, i don't disagree that deaths could just be a lagging stat. We can tell any story from a snapshot, but to fully appreciate two girls and one cup, you need the whole video.  


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#8806 toonces

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Posted Today, 08:06 AM

If we had an actual strategy for if things go to shit, there should be less concern over the infection numbers.

Five years ago, we had an actual strategy.  It was dismantled.


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#8807 maddog

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Posted Today, 08:39 AM

Runner left on base is an important stat


Many baseball statisticians disagree.

;)
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#8808 miccullen

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Posted Today, 11:05 AM

This seems ridiculous to me. A friend of mines sister is a nurse at a hospital and tested positive for it last week. She's doing fine, slight cough, loss of taste and smell, and low fever. You would expect her to be out of work for a bit right? Wrong. They are telling her to go ahead and come to work if she feels up to it and aren't requiring any follow-up testing because she could "be positive for a while".

no ####ing way


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#8809 miccullen

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Posted Today, 11:41 AM

A stat here I found interesting is that 22.4% of our cases (388 of 1730) are Pacific Islanders, who make up just .6% of our population.

 

https://srhd.org/covid19cases


Edited by miccullen, Today, 11:41 AM.

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#8810 Mando

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Posted Today, 01:40 PM

A stat here I found interesting is that 22.4% of our cases (388 of 1730) are Pacific Islanders, who make up just .6% of our population.

 

https://srhd.org/covid19cases

 

maybe something cultural where they don't social distance?

 

do they tend to be diabetic?


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#8811 TonyBrown

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Posted Today, 01:46 PM

A stat here I found interesting is that 22.4% of our cases (388 of 1730) are Pacific Islanders, who make up just .6% of our population.

 

https://srhd.org/covid19cases

would be an interesting breakdown to see concentrations by neighborhood, ethnicity, income, and other metrics.  might help identify cultural patterns, maybe cultural social patterns that may cause more outbreaks within certain communities.  


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#8812 maddog

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Posted Today, 01:57 PM

The founder effect might be playing a large role, too. Numbers look big in populations that have the bad luck of contacting it earlier than their neighbors.

Edited by maddog, Today, 01:57 PM.

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#8813 miccullen

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Posted Today, 03:00 PM

would be an interesting breakdown to see concentrations by neighborhood, ethnicity, income, and other metrics.  might help identify cultural patterns, maybe cultural social patterns that may cause more outbreaks within certain communities.  

my zip cope is second highest rate of infection per capita and second poorest per capita IIRC


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#8814 davelew

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Posted Today, 04:18 PM

Many baseball statisticians disagree.

;)


This. LOB is interesting for the story of a single game, but pretty meaningless over the course of a season. Any team good at getting outs with men on base is also good at getting outs without men on base.
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